Pylyp Orlyk Foundation Discussion: What Ukraine Needs to Win Against Russia

A Technological Revolution on the Battlefield

The main changes in the war are above all technological, said Artem Mykolaychuk, head of the Pylyp Orlyk Foundation’s governing board, at the start of the discussion. He also noted: despite everything, the enemy cannot be underestimated, as Ukraine is resisting the world’s second army.

“The Ukrainian army rewrote the manuals for waging war. A drone worth a few hundred dollars destroys a tank worth a million. Naval unmanned platforms drove the Russians out of the northwestern part of the Black Sea. BPLA and rockets of entirely Ukrainian production reach enemy PPO and fly thousands of kilometers deep into Russia. What five years ago seemed like futurology is today studied in staff colleges from London to Taipei. The enemy is weakening — for the first time in years of war it is losing ground and looking for ways out of its disastrous situation,” said Artem Mykolaychuk.

But the Ukrainian phenomenon is not only in military achievements. Researchers from the University of Colorado, the Central European University in Vienna, and universities of Norway and Germany are studying another phenomenon: how 1,469 Ukrainian citizens did not let the state fall. Parents’ committees, youth organizations, volunteer networks, doctors and activists reprofiled themselves for resistance. Trust, built in peacetime, became the infrastructure for survival during the war. Finland is studying the Ukrainian model. Poland is building reserve centers for decision-making under Ukrainian management. The Baltic states are amazed at how local organizations are transforming into a crisis response system,” said Artem Mykolaychuk.

Russia Is Approaching a Systemic Crisis

The intensification of at least twice as many strikes by the Armed Forces deep into Russia by the end of the year was announced by adviser to the Minister of Defence of Ukraine Serhiy Sternenko. In his view, Russia is approaching a systemic crisis, as losses are growing, as is the level of demoralization among Russians. According to his data, the Russian army, advancing through Ukrainian territory, is now losing twice as many personnel as in the spring of last year. Sternenko also pointed to the technological superiority of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: the development of unmanned systems and modern communications.

“Growing social discontent due to the economic crisis and internet shutdowns and restricted access to certain messengers, Ukrainian strikes, the transfer of the war deep into Russia, major losses — all of this, together with the weak vertical of Russian power, will inevitably lead to the collapse of the empire,” the convinced Serhiy Sternenko believes.

Former Minister of Foreign Affairs Volodymyr Ohryzko drew parallels between today’s Russia and the late Soviet Union, noting the feeling of systemic collapse.

“It was clear that this management system had already broken down, it is already such that it cannot continue to exist, but it still continues to move forward through the inertia of the flywheel. In such cases, one stone is enough to trigger the process,” noted Ohryzko, a researcher at the Russia Studies Centre.

Russia is currently entering a phase where key elements of the regime are beginning to break down, especially the repressive apparatus. “Was it possible to protest and criticize the tsar himself? And what was the reaction of the secret services? None. This is a sign that the system is no longer working,” noted the diplomat.

Ohryzko also pointed out that Ukraine has not yet formulated a clear strategy regarding Russia, which complicates defining the ultimate goal of the war. His personal vision — the disappearance of the Russian Federation as a state.

The Limits of International Support

Diplomat Volodymyr Yelchenko spoke about the limits of international support for Ukraine. He believes: Ukraine has overestimated the readiness of partners — the EU, the USA, Canada and NATO to act more decisively and underestimated the importance of working with Global South countries. At the same time, few countries have generally thought in categories of Russia’s defeat.

“Even in the West, few people think in categories of Russia’s defeat and unconditional support for Ukraine. They are looking for compromises at Ukraine’s expense,” noted the head of the research direction on international politics of the Pylyp Orlyk Foundation, Volodymyr Yelchenko.

Challenges of the Ukrainian Armed Forces

The professionalism, cohesion and high level of combat experience of Ukrainian servicemen was emphasized by AFU Lieutenant Colonel, Hero of Ukraine Vitaliy Savych. However, Ukraine has serious technical and systemic challenges. He also spoke about the bureaucracy that hampers development.

“Our aviation has been destroyed. We need new helicopters, a new class and modernization. Besides, we operate under Soviet-era regulations, simply translated into Ukrainian. The documents that regulate flight work are from the 1970s–80s, adapted to today,” he noted.

The Role of Culture in Societal Resilience

Although culture forms the foundation of societal resilience, it remains undervalued — believes Olha Salo. The head of cultural initiatives of the Pylyp Orlyk Foundation said that cultural sector workers are actually performing an important mobilization function, working with youth and the military, but do not have proper status and support. At the same time, demand for Ukrainian culture and identity continues to grow in society:

“Culture is our shield that forms the backbone. But at the level of decision-making it remains secondary, if not tertiary. It is the citizens themselves who form values, which then motivate people to take up arms and defend their territory. But at the level of civic awareness that the budget should allocate funds for culture, that is very low.”

What Each Person Can Do to Help Win

“What can each person do right now to bring victory closer?” — the final, but not rhetorical question of the discussion. The answers differ, but the essence is the same: victory is something everyone must reach. For inspiration, Volodymyr Ohryzko proposes to start each morning with the question: “What have you done so that the Russian Federation is no longer on the world map?”

Vitaliy Savych calls for belief in victory: “If we don’t believe in victory — there would be no need to start the fight. The state doesn’t owe me, I owe the state for living in it. Each morning ask yourself: what have I done for the state?”

Serhiy Sternenko emphasizes at the basic level: “Each person can be either in the army or for the army. Each person can donate, help, volunteer, support our army — this is most important. And don’t be afraid to speak the truth.”

One’s position in society is no less important than concrete help, Olha Salo is convinced: “When we see injustice regarding the military — we need not to be silent, but to react. We must maintain the authority of our army — for ourselves and publicly.”

Volodymyr Yelchenko emphasizes the need to expel Russia from the UN: “Continue to believe in victory and convince others of this. And the second — this is ‘get Russia out of the UN’. Talk about it in conversations, sign the petition. This momentum needs to continue.”

As we previously reported, the Pylyp Orlyk Foundation and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine signed a Memorandum of Cooperation, including regarding the suspension of the aggressor state Russia’s activities in international organizations. Learn more about the #unrussiaUN initiative on the Pylyp Orlyk Foundation website. And everyone who wishes can sign the petition here.

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Photos and videos from the event can be downloaded here.