Ukraine as a Security Exporter: What Stands in the Way of Entering the Global Market
Ukraine is gaining unique experience in developing military technologies and working with artificial intelligence during the full-scale Russian invasion. Against a backdrop of global threats, these developments are attracting significant interest from countries in the Middle East and Europe — yet the export of military technologies remains effectively blocked. What Ukraine must do in the first half of 2026 to avoid missing this window of opportunity was the subject of a discussion, as we previously wrote, held under the title “Ukraine’s Place in the New World.”
Ukraine can enter the global market for defense technologies and artificial intelligence within the coming months — but without legislation and clear export rules, the process could drag on for years. The unique experience in the field of defense technologies already exists; what is still lacking is the systematic work needed to convert it into economic and political results.
Absence of an AI Legal Framework as a Strategic Vulnerability
The lack of basic regulation of AI solutions is becoming a systemic problem, says Oleh Zaіarnyi, Academic Advisor to the Pylyp Orlyk Foundation and Doctor of Law:
“We are developing, testing, and scaling AI solutions directly under active combat conditions, and this experience is an invaluable asset on the global defense technology market. At the same time, our legislation significantly lags behind the real state of affairs. Ukraine still does not have a basic law defining the legal framework for the development and use of artificial intelligence systems. This is a strategic vulnerability: without a clear legal framework, neither the protection of intellectual property rights nor the conclusion of full-fledged international contracts will have a reliable foundation.”
Decisions, amendments, and responses to market needs must come quickly, as the window for action is limited. According to Zaіarnyi, the second half of 2026 will see the signing of the first genuine contracts for the supply of Ukrainian AI systems to foreign clients.
“The question is not whether this will happen — the question is on whose terms. If the legal framework is ready, we will set the terms ourselves. If not, the buyer will dictate, and that will cost Ukraine far more than any legislative delay,” he emphasized.
Blocked Arms Exports Are Holding Back the Economy
One of the key barriers to Ukraine’s development remains the absence of full-scale defense product exports. While exports remain blocked, the market is growing rapidly and Ukraine is losing both revenue and opportunities, argues Oleksandr Bazar, co-founder of the Kyiv Institute of National Interest:
“The arms exports that remain blocked are significantly limiting Ukraine’s ability to present and sell its military-industrial products. Without the export of value-added products, the economy will not be viable.”
Bureaucracy vs. Market Speed
The gap between demand and capacity — particularly in light of events in the Middle East — and slow-moving bureaucratic processes were raised by Yurii Lomikovskyi, co-founder of the IRON defense technology cluster:
“Interest in Ukrainian interceptor drones and air defense was enormous, but we did not understand how to approach this correctly. We wanted to provide comprehensive security and build partnerships on that basis, but there is no coherent vision. An export license takes up to 90 days to obtain, and by that time the technologies are already becoming less relevant. Such instances of illegal exports have occurred, which is why transparent, clear, and fast rules are needed.”
AI capabilities are already being actively used by Ukraine’s Defense Forces on the battlefield. However, technologies are evolving faster than regulation, says Andrii Starzhynskyi, co-founder of the startup a-Gnostics:
“We need regulated exchange of military-grade data, because it can have different access regimes. This must be taken into account when training models and distributing results. If our artificial intelligence kills one of our soldiers, who will be held responsible — this is a completely unregulated area. The world also has no clear answer, but we need to resolve it faster.”
Business Is Ready — Political Will Is Needed
Ukrainian business is ready to operate on global markets, but needs clear rules. Pavlo Mykhailiuk, Director of Ecosystem Development at UNIT.City, speaks about the need for a change in approach:
“Ukrainian business is shedding its sense of inferiority and is open to cooperation with international partners. We understand that we have something to show the external market. What is needed from the state is the regulation of military technology exports. Entering other markets also requires developing marketing and adapting to external conditions.”
The window of opportunity is narrowing every day as the world increasingly shifts to a pragmatic model of interaction, believes Dmytro Korniienko, founder of the analytical community Resurgam:
“The world is no longer built solely on values — it is built on pragmatism: what you can offer. Ukraine needs to propose a vision of a new system to the world. Our window of opportunity is quite narrow, and uniqueness spreads and is copied quickly, even without our direct exports.”
Political Will and Legislative Priorities
Without political will and the search for solutions through dialogue between government, developers, the military, and civil society, Ukraine will not be able to enter the global defense technology market quickly and effectively, believes Yaroslav Bozhko, head of the Doctrine Centre for Political Studies.
“The key thesis is the need to align domestic and foreign policy. Often a decision is not made not because it is unnecessary, but because it is politically difficult.”
Oleh Zaіarnyi, Academic Advisor to the Foundation and Doctor of Law, proposes as a priority the adoption of a Law “On the Basic Principles of Regulating Artificial Intelligence Systems” with a dedicated section for defense applications, amendments to the Law “On National Security of Ukraine” regarding AI systems, and the passage of a law on the controlled export of defense innovations and dual-use technologies. He also emphasizes the need to incorporate into Ukrainian legislation NATO’s six Principles for Responsible Use of AI — the so-called PRU.
“Alliance partners will not purchase what has not been verified for compliance with these standards. As such, the certification of AI weapons is not a bureaucratic formality — it is literally a commercial condition for survival in a market where tens of billions of dollars will circulate over the next few years,” Zaіarnyi said.
The discussion was initiated by the Kyiv Institute of National Interest together with the Pylyp Orlyk Foundation. The organizers plan to make such discussions a regular occurrence and invite all interested stakeholders to participate.
Photo: Sofiia Dalibоzhak and the Communications Department of the Pylyp Orlyk Foundation
